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MNI BOE Sellside Views Update

  • There remains a unanimous expectation among sell-side economists that Bank Rate will be raised by 25bp in both June and August.
  • Some analysts now look for 1-2 hawkish dissents following the CPI print. No one explicitly is calling for 3+ votes for 50bp. Most believe it doesn’t really matter if we have 1 or 2 dovish dissenters in terms of market reaction.
  • Most expect the guidance to be left unchanged, but some look for more hawkish language or a commitment to examine the reasons for the upside inflation prints in the August MPR.
  • Goldman Sachs has joined Barclays and BNP with a 5.50% terminal rate forecast. Berenberg and TD Securities increased from 5.00% to 5.25%.
  • 47% of analysts expect a 5.00% terminal rate, 38% look for 5.25% while 14% look for 5.50%.
  • A fair number of analysts also point to upside risks to their forecasts. No one sees any 50bp hikes in their base case – but most see August as more likely for a 50bp hike than June.
For the full document including the MNI BOE Preview and summaries of individual analysts' post-CPI views see:

MNI BoE Sellside Update - 2023_06_22.pdf

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