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MNI ECB Preview - June 2024: Expect an Insurance Cut in June

A June cut has been so well-telegraphed by the ECB that failing to deliver would result in significant loss of credibility.

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Don’t Expect Anything Other Than an Insurance Cut in June

  • A June cut has been so well-telegraphed by the ECB that failing to deliver would result in significant loss of credibility.
  • However, uncertainties over inflation persistence, the geopolitical backdrop, and the outlook for global monetary policy (principally the Fed) suggest that the June decision will be no more than an insurance cut at this stage with no new policy signals.
  • Although still a relatively low probability outcome for now, we cannot fully discount the potential for a ‘one and done’ rate cut in 2024.
For the full publication please see:

ECB Preview June 2024.pdf

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Don’t Expect Anything Other Than an Insurance Cut in June

  • A June cut has been so well-telegraphed by the ECB that failing to deliver would result in significant loss of credibility.
  • However, uncertainties over inflation persistence, the geopolitical backdrop, and the outlook for global monetary policy (principally the Fed) suggest that the June decision will be no more than an insurance cut at this stage with no new policy signals.
  • Although still a relatively low probability outcome for now, we cannot fully discount the potential for a ‘one and done’ rate cut in 2024.
For the full publication please see:

ECB Preview June 2024.pdf