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MNI Riksbank Preview - November 2022: Upside risks to 75bp

The MNI Markets team expects that higher CPIF ex energy than the Riksbank expected and a larger ECB hike will push the Riksbank to hike 75bp this week.

  • The MNI Markets team expects that higher CPIF ex energy than the Riksbank expected and a larger ECB hike will push the Riksbank to hike 75bp this week (more than its forward guidance of 50bp would have suggested).
  • The MNI Markets team thinks that although a 100bp hike cannot be ruled out (and the risks are more in favour of a 100bp hike than 50bp hike in our view) that concerns about the housing market and an impending recession will be enough to stop the Riksbank from delivering such a large rate hike again.
For the full MNI Riksbank Preview including summaries of 10 sellside previews see:

MNI Riksbank Preview - 2022-11.pdf

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  • The MNI Markets team expects that higher CPIF ex energy than the Riksbank expected and a larger ECB hike will push the Riksbank to hike 75bp this week (more than its forward guidance of 50bp would have suggested).
  • The MNI Markets team thinks that although a 100bp hike cannot be ruled out (and the risks are more in favour of a 100bp hike than 50bp hike in our view) that concerns about the housing market and an impending recession will be enough to stop the Riksbank from delivering such a large rate hike again.
For the full MNI Riksbank Preview including summaries of 10 sellside previews see:

MNI Riksbank Preview - 2022-11.pdf