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MNI BOE Review - March 2023: Growth data takes on added importance

  • The MPC delivered this 25bp hike with a 7-2 vote (Dhingra and Tenreyro both voting for unchanged rates).
  • If taken at face value, given how much the MPC played down the significance of the February inflation print, there is more emphasis being placed on growth data than we would previously have expected.
  • We continue to expect the labour market data released on 18 April and March inflation data due the following day will be the key data to watch, but think that growth data will take on increased significance now, too. For now we think that a May hike hangs in the balance.
  • We have read through over 20 analyst reviews and 2/3 of analysts' base cases see the March hike as the final one in the cycle, but many also note that the May decision will be data-dependant.
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MNI BoE Review - Mar23.pdf

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