MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 20

• Slovakia, Germany and Italy are due to hold auctions in the upcoming week while the ESM, Slovenia and Spain are also likely to hold syndications. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E31.0bln next week, significantly lower than this week’s E51.9bln.
• The upcoming week sees redemptions and coupons sum to less than E1.0bln. With estimated gross nominal issuance of E31.0bln next week, we look for net flows of positive E30.1bln in the week ahead, up a little from this week’s positive E27.5bln.

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EZ230220.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The ESM has issued an RFP for a transaction and we pencil in a syndication this week for E2bln.
• Slovenia announced a cash tender offer to buyback Mar-23 (ISIN SI0002103974) and Sep-24 (ISIN SI0002102984) bonds with the view to holding a syndication this week depending on the takeup. Results of the buyback will be announced on Tuesday with a syndication likely on Wednesday or Thursday.
• We also think there is a good chance of a Spain syndication next week. The longest-dated Obli on offer at last week’s auction had a maturity of less than 10-years which we think tees up this week nicely for a syndication. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity, but that there is a decent chance of a new 15-year Obli.
• Slovakia will kick off auction issuance on Monday, with the 2-year 0.25% May-25 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017158), the 4- year 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380) and the 30-year 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857) all on offer.
• On Tuesday, Germany will come to the market with E5bln of the 2.20% Apr-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25000) on offer.
• On Wednesday, Italy will hold a BTP-ST / BTPei auction. In terms of the BTP Short Term, we expect to see a new issue launched, potentially with a Nov-24 maturity although note that in January Italy preferred to tap two existing BTPs rather than issue a new BTP-ST. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity of the BTPei on offer. Details will be released later today.
• Also Wednesday, Germany will look to reopen the 10-year 2.30% Feb-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z007) for E5bln.
• Italy will return to the market on Friday with 5/10-year BTPs on offer alongside a CCTeu. we look for the 5-year 3.40% Apr-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005521981) to be reopened alongside the 10-year 4.40% May-33 BTP (ISIN: IT0005518128) and the Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250).
• Cancelled auction: Note that the OLO auction originally scheduled for Monday 20 February has been cancelled due to the launch of the 3.00% Jun-54 OLO via syndication on Wednesday 15 February.