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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 26

The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Belgium are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E14.5bln, down from E28.6bln this week.

  • The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Belgium are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E14.5bln, down from E28.6bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees large redemptions totalling E53.4bln, most notably E31.0bln from a formerly 3-year OAT and E22.1bln from a formerly 10-year BTP.
  • Coupons for the week sum to E12.1bln including E8.6bln from Italy and E3.3bln from France.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E51.0bln versus positive E19.7bln this week.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240226.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands will come to the market to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the 3.25% Jan-44 Green DSL (ISIN: NL0015001RG8). This will be the first reopening of the bond since it was launched via DDA in October.
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030724).
  • On Wednesday, Italy will come to the market to hold a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction, including launches of 5/10-year BTPs with a total auction size of up to E9.75bln: E3.50-3.75bln of the new 5-year 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (we had only expected an outside chance of this being launched this week - instead thinking a February launch was more likely), E4.0-4.5bln of the new 10-year 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (in line with MNI's expectation) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.15% Oct-31 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005554982).
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will the E1bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E500mln of the 3.25% Jul-42 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135432).
  • On Friday, Belgium will come to the market to hold an ORI operation. There will likely be two off-the-run OLOs on offer for a combined E500mln. Details will be announced on Thursday.
  • Note that subscriptions for the next retail-only Belgium State Bonds (Bons d’Etat) opened on Thursday 22 February. Belgium plans to launch a new 1-year issue (ISIN: BE3871294240) and a new 3-year issue (ISIN: BE3871295254). The subscription window is planned to be open until Friday 1 March but there is a possibility of an early close. The BDA has announced that there will be a combined limit of E6.0bln across the two issues.
  • Italy is due to launch a new retail-only 6-year Mar-30 BTP Valore (ISIN: IT0005583478) with books opening on Monday. There will be a step-up coupon with a 3.25% rate for years 1-3 and 4.00% for years 4-6 with a bonus of 0.7% for those who hold from the initial issue through to maturity. Unless there is an early close, books are due to close at 13:00CET on Friday 1 March.
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  • The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Belgium are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E14.5bln, down from E28.6bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees large redemptions totalling E53.4bln, most notably E31.0bln from a formerly 3-year OAT and E22.1bln from a formerly 10-year BTP.
  • Coupons for the week sum to E12.1bln including E8.6bln from Italy and E3.3bln from France.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E51.0bln versus positive E19.7bln this week.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240226.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands will come to the market to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the 3.25% Jan-44 Green DSL (ISIN: NL0015001RG8). This will be the first reopening of the bond since it was launched via DDA in October.
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030724).
  • On Wednesday, Italy will come to the market to hold a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction, including launches of 5/10-year BTPs with a total auction size of up to E9.75bln: E3.50-3.75bln of the new 5-year 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (we had only expected an outside chance of this being launched this week - instead thinking a February launch was more likely), E4.0-4.5bln of the new 10-year 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (in line with MNI's expectation) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.15% Oct-31 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005554982).
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will the E1bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E500mln of the 3.25% Jul-42 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135432).
  • On Friday, Belgium will come to the market to hold an ORI operation. There will likely be two off-the-run OLOs on offer for a combined E500mln. Details will be announced on Thursday.
  • Note that subscriptions for the next retail-only Belgium State Bonds (Bons d’Etat) opened on Thursday 22 February. Belgium plans to launch a new 1-year issue (ISIN: BE3871294240) and a new 3-year issue (ISIN: BE3871295254). The subscription window is planned to be open until Friday 1 March but there is a possibility of an early close. The BDA has announced that there will be a combined limit of E6.0bln across the two issues.
  • Italy is due to launch a new retail-only 6-year Mar-30 BTP Valore (ISIN: IT0005583478) with books opening on Monday. There will be a step-up coupon with a 3.25% rate for years 1-3 and 4.00% for years 4-6 with a bonus of 0.7% for those who hold from the initial issue through to maturity. Unless there is an early close, books are due to close at 13:00CET on Friday 1 March.