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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jul 31

  • Germany, Spain, France and Belgium all look to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E18.0bln, down from E24.0bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees large redemptions totalling E45.7bln, split between E21.2bln from a formerly 5-year Spanish Bono, E20.5bln from an originally 15-year BTP and E4.0bln of an originally 5-year ESM-bond.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E13.9bln, of which E9.4bln are Austrian and E4.4bln Italian.
  • This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated negative E41.6bln, more negative than the negative E8.4bln this week.
For more see the full PDF here:

EZ230731.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

  • Germany will kick off issuance for both the week and August on Wednesday, selling 15-year Bunds: E750mln of the previous benchmark, the 0% May-36 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102549), will be on offer alongside E1.25bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
  • On Thursday, Spain will look to hold an Obli/ObliEi auction. On offer will be the 1.50% Apr-27 Obli (ISIN: ES00000128P8), the 0.60% Oct-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012F43) and the on-the-run 10-year 3.55% Oct-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L78) alongside the 0.65% Nov-27 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000128S2). We pencil in a E5-6bln auction size (to be announced Monday), although wouldn’t rule out either slightly larger in line with recent auctions, or slightly smaller as we move into August.
    • Note that as we flagged as likely, the auction for 17 August has been cancelled.
  • Also Thursday, France will come to the market to hold a LT OAT auction. As we expected, the auction size of E8-9bln is a bit smaller than we have seen recently (France typically reduces its auction sizes in August), although it’s not as much of a reduction as has been seen in other years. On offer will be the on-the-run 10-year 3.00% May-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7), the on-the-run 15-year 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62) and the 37-year 4.00% Apr-60 OAT (ISIN: FR0010870956).
  • On Friday, Belgium will hold an ORI operation. We look for the usual up to E500mln size with off-the-run OLOs likely to be on offer.
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