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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jun 20

  • Slovakia, Belgium, the EU, Italy, Germany, and Italy are all due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E17.4bln, down from the E37.9bln sold this week.
  • There is only a negligible redemption of E0.1bln with coupon payments of E4.0bln due (of which E3.3bln are Finnish).
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E13.3bln (down from the positive E20.3bln this week).
Full document:

EZ220620.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

  • Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with E450mln of 3/5/8/30-year SlovGBs on offer: E100mln of the 0.25% May-25 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017158), E100mln of the 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), E150mln of the 0.75% Apr-30 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120015173) and E100mln of the 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857).
  • Belgium will then look to sell E2.7-3.7bln of 7/10/30-year OLOs. On offer will be the 0.90% Jun-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000347568), the 0.35% Jun-32 OLO (ISIN: BE0000354630) and the 1.40% Jul-53 OLO (ISIN: BE0000355645).
  • Next week, the EU will also look to hold a syndication. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity that will be on offer.
  • Italy will look to launch a new Jun-30 BTP Italia with a minimum guaranteed coupon of 1.60%, with the definite annual coupon rate communicated ahead of the institutional investor phase. Monday to Wednesday will be reserved for retail investors, with institutional investors able to bid on Thursday morning.
  • On Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
  • On Friday, Italy will look to sell BTP Short Term/BTPei. The MEF made no mention of a new BTP Short-Term in its Q2 issuance guidance, but we note that the on-the-run 0% Nov-23 BTP Short Term now has E15bln outstanding and is therefore a similar size to the previous two BTP Short Terms before they were replaced with a new benchmark. We therefore think there is around a 50% chance that we see a new BTP Short Term issued (with a new issue in July if not). For the BTPei auction, given we have the 8-year BTP Italia shortly beforehand, we think there is a chance the MEF skips the auction this month, or alternatively issues a long-term BTPei. Details will be announced Tuesday.
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