Free Trial
EURGBP TECHS

Trend Signals Point North

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Recession Consensus Mounts: "40+% Chance" Views (2/4)

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Recession Consensus Mounts: "Growth Recession" Views (1/4)

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jun 20

Slovakia, Belgium, the EU, Italy, Germany, and Italy are all due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E17.4bln, down from the E37.9bln sold this week.

  • Slovakia, Belgium, the EU, Italy, Germany, and Italy are all due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E17.4bln, down from the E37.9bln sold this week.
  • There is only a negligible redemption of E0.1bln with coupon payments of E4.0bln due (of which E3.3bln are Finnish).
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E13.3bln (down from the positive E20.3bln this week).
Full document:

EZ220620.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

  • Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with E450mln of 3/5/8/30-year SlovGBs on offer: E100mln of the 0.25% May-25 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017158), E100mln of the 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), E150mln of the 0.75% Apr-30 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120015173) and E100mln of the 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857).
  • Belgium will then look to sell E2.7-3.7bln of 7/10/30-year OLOs. On offer will be the 0.90% Jun-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000347568), the 0.35% Jun-32 OLO (ISIN: BE0000354630) and the 1.40% Jul-53 OLO (ISIN: BE0000355645).
  • Next week, the EU will also look to hold a syndication. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity that will be on offer.
  • Italy will look to launch a new Jun-30 BTP Italia with a minimum guaranteed coupon of 1.60%, with the definite annual coupon rate communicated ahead of the institutional investor phase. Monday to Wednesday will be reserved for retail investors, with institutional investors able to bid on Thursday morning.
  • On Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
  • On Friday, Italy will look to sell BTP Short Term/BTPei. The MEF made no mention of a new BTP Short-Term in its Q2 issuance guidance, but we note that the on-the-run 0% Nov-23 BTP Short Term now has E15bln outstanding and is therefore a similar size to the previous two BTP Short Terms before they were replaced with a new benchmark. We therefore think there is around a 50% chance that we see a new BTP Short Term issued (with a new issue in July if not). For the BTPei auction, given we have the 8-year BTP Italia shortly beforehand, we think there is a chance the MEF skips the auction this month, or alternatively issues a long-term BTPei. Details will be announced Tuesday.
375 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.
  • Slovakia, Belgium, the EU, Italy, Germany, and Italy are all due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E17.4bln, down from the E37.9bln sold this week.
  • There is only a negligible redemption of E0.1bln with coupon payments of E4.0bln due (of which E3.3bln are Finnish).
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E13.3bln (down from the positive E20.3bln this week).
Full document:

EZ220620.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

  • Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with E450mln of 3/5/8/30-year SlovGBs on offer: E100mln of the 0.25% May-25 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017158), E100mln of the 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), E150mln of the 0.75% Apr-30 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120015173) and E100mln of the 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857).
  • Belgium will then look to sell E2.7-3.7bln of 7/10/30-year OLOs. On offer will be the 0.90% Jun-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000347568), the 0.35% Jun-32 OLO (ISIN: BE0000354630) and the 1.40% Jul-53 OLO (ISIN: BE0000355645).
  • Next week, the EU will also look to hold a syndication. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity that will be on offer.
  • Italy will look to launch a new Jun-30 BTP Italia with a minimum guaranteed coupon of 1.60%, with the definite annual coupon rate communicated ahead of the institutional investor phase. Monday to Wednesday will be reserved for retail investors, with institutional investors able to bid on Thursday morning.
  • On Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
  • On Friday, Italy will look to sell BTP Short Term/BTPei. The MEF made no mention of a new BTP Short-Term in its Q2 issuance guidance, but we note that the on-the-run 0% Nov-23 BTP Short Term now has E15bln outstanding and is therefore a similar size to the previous two BTP Short Terms before they were replaced with a new benchmark. We therefore think there is around a 50% chance that we see a new BTP Short Term issued (with a new issue in July if not). For the BTPei auction, given we have the 8-year BTP Italia shortly beforehand, we think there is a chance the MEF skips the auction this month, or alternatively issues a long-term BTPei. Details will be announced Tuesday.