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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C May 30

  • Italy, Germany, Spain, France and Belgium are due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E26.8bln (excluding any unconfirmed syndications), down from the E31.8bln sold this week.
  • There will be E16.1bln of redemptions next week (E15.8bln of which are an Italian CTZ) and coupon payments of E1.8bln (of which E1.7bln are Spanish).
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E8.8bln (close to a reverse of the negative E9.1bln this week).
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Week Ahead Supply:

  • Greece will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with an extraordinary auction of 15/20-year GGBs “to provide additional liquidity”. On offer will be up to E250mln of the 4.00% Jan-37 GGB (ISIN: GR0133011248) and up to E150mln of the 4.20% Jan-42 GGB (ISIN: GR0138015814).
  • On Tuesday, Italy will look to sell on-the-run 5/10-year BTPs and the CCTeu. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the 1.10% Apr-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005484552), E2.0-2.5bln of the 2.50% Dec-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005494239) and E1.0-1.25bln of the 0.75% Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250).
  • Germany will then come to the market to conclude May issuance with E3bln of the 0% Apr-27 Bobl on offer (ISIN: DE0001141851).
  • On Thursday, Spain will look to sell off-the-run 3/9-year Oblis and on-the-run 7-year Obli and a 5-year Obli-Ei. On offer will be the 4.65% Jul-25 Obli (ISIN: ES00000122E5), the 0.80% Jul-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K53), the 0.10% Apr-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012H41) and the 0.65% Nov-27 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000128S2). Issuance volumes will be confirmed Monday.
  • Also Thursday, France will offer E9.5-10.5bln of 10/15/30-year OATs: the 0% May-32 OAT, the 1.25% May-36 OAT and the 0.75% May-52 OAT.
  • Belgium has an ORI operation scheduled for Friday, with details to be announced on Thursday afternoon. We expect a E500mln operation.
  • In addition, we expect the German 0% Aug-50 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030724) to be reopened via syndication either next week or the week after.

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