MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Oct 3

• The EFSF, Austria, Germany, Spain and France will all look to issue bonds in the upcoming week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E23.4bln from announced operations, little changed from this week’s E23.6bln.
• The upcoming week will see the redemption of a German Bobl for E19.5bln with E0.5bln of Italian coupon payments due.
• With estimated gross issuance of E23.4bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of positive E3.4bln in the week ahead, up from last week’s negative E6.0bln.

EZ221003.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

• The EFSF has issued an RFP and we expect the transaction in the upcoming week, probably Tuesday.
• Germany is also due to hold a syndication in October to launch the new 30-year 1.80% Aug-53 Bund. MNI thinks there is a good chance that we see that transaction in the upcoming week.
• Austria will kick off auctions for the week on Tuesday with a combined E1.725bln of 10/30-year RAGBs on offer: the 0.90% Feb-32 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A2WSC8) and the 0.75% Mar-51 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A2EJ08).
• Tuesday will also see Germany look to sell E400mln of the 0.10% Apr-33 ILB (ISIN: DE0001030583).
• On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market with E1.5bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) on offer.
• On Thursday, Spain will look to sell the benchmark 10-year Obli alongside off-the-run 6/28-year Oblis and the Nov-30 Obli-Ei. On offer will be the 6.00% Jan-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000011868), the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61), the 1.00% Oct-50 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G00) and the 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday.
• Finally on Thursday, France will look to sell E9-10bln of LT OATs (the benchmark 10/30/45-year). On off will be the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3), the 0.75% May-53 OAT (ISIN: FR0014004J31) and the 1.75% May-66 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154028)