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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Sep 26

  • The EU, Netherlands, Italy and Germany will all look to issue bonds in the upcoming week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E23.0bln from announced operations, up from last week’s E16.9bln.
  • The upcoming week will see redemptions of E28.8bln with the most notable being E13.5bln of the last remaining Italian CTZ and E14.5bln of a formerly 10-year Belgian OLO.
  • There will also be E0.8bln of coupon payments due (E0.6bln Finnish).
  • With estimated gross issuance of E16.9bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of negative E6.6bln in the week ahead, down from last week’s positive E9.5bln.
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Week Ahead Supply:

  • The EU will kick off issuance for the week on Monday, with E4.0bln NGEU bonds on offer: up to E1.5bln of the 0.80% Jul-25 EU NGEU (ISIN: EU000A3K4DJ5) and up to E2.5bln of the 1.00% Jul-32 EU NGEU (ISIN: EU000A3K4DD8).
  • The Netherlands will hold a DDA on Tuesday with E3-5bln of the new 2.00% Jan-54 DSL on offer. The initial spread guidance will be published on Monday.
  • Also Tuesday, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be: E2.0-2.5bln of the 1.75% May-24 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005499311) and E0.75-1.25bln of the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994).
  • Germany will complete Tuesday's issuance with E3bln of the 1.30% Oct-27 Bobl (ISIN: DE0001141869) on offer.
  • On Friday, Italy will conclude Eurozone issuance for the week with 5/10-year BTPs and CCTeus on offer. Details will be announced on Monday. We expect reopenings of the 2.65% Dec-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005500068), the 2.50% Dec-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005494239) and the 0.75% Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250).

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