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Gilt Week Ahead: Bailey and Pill Comments in Focus (Again!)

We look at Bailey and Pill's recent comments, last week's moves in STIR markets, our expectations for the DMO consultation meetings and preview the upcoming linker synidcation.

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  • Last week's Treasury Select Committee hearing on the MPR gave little new information away but it was interesting that Governor Bailey mentioned that we would have a lot more information on the labour market in the six weeks before the December meeting. In the post-MPR press conference Bailey had failed to be drawn on when there would be enough data in order to make a decision on whether to hike or not, but these comments seemed to suggest that December does very much remain on the table as an option for the MPC.
  • Last week, Pill's comment that the first hike would not necessarily be 15bp moved markets somewhat (although partly due to the remarks being taken out of context).
  • We also look at the movements in STIR markets last week and our expectations for the DMO investor/GEMMs consultation meetings.
  • See the full document for gilt supply previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar.

Full document:

GiltWeekAhead15112021.pdf