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Gilt Week Ahead: Bailey and Pill Comments in Focus (Again!)

  • Last week's Treasury Select Committee hearing on the MPR gave little new information away but it was interesting that Governor Bailey mentioned that we would have a lot more information on the labour market in the six weeks before the December meeting. In the post-MPR press conference Bailey had failed to be drawn on when there would be enough data in order to make a decision on whether to hike or not, but these comments seemed to suggest that December does very much remain on the table as an option for the MPC.
  • Last week, Pill's comment that the first hike would not necessarily be 15bp moved markets somewhat (although partly due to the remarks being taken out of context).
  • We also look at the movements in STIR markets last week and our expectations for the DMO investor/GEMMs consultation meetings.
  • See the full document for gilt supply previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar.

Full document:

GiltWeekAhead15112021.pdf

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