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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Source: Bank of Canada
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The BoC is seen hiking another 75bps on Wednesday as still stubborn inflation and short-term consumer inflation expectations plus a depreciating CAD help warrant continued aggressive tightening.
- It’s not a done deal though, especially after BoC surprises this year: recent data have been mixed, including a sharp decline in business sentiment and less sharp fall in business inflation expectations.
- The market currently prices ~70bps for the meeting whilst Bloomberg consensus has just edged to a 75bp hike over 50bp as survey responses are updated after last week’s BoC surveys and CPI, and could nudge a little more in favour of 75bp as responses continue to be tweaked but are unlikely unanimous.
- Our base case is for the Bank to indicate further hikes ahead with a hawkish tone whilst trying to maintain optionality for a stepdown in the pace of rate hikes come the December meeting should data warrant it.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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