Maryland Could Prove Spoiler To Democrat Chances Of Retaining Senate

Maryland voters will today cast their ballots in the Senate Democratic primary to decide whether Rep David Trone (D-MD) or Angela Alsobrooks (D) will take the nomination to face presumptive GOP nominee former Maryland governor Larry Hogan at the general election in November. Hogan has drawn on his political capital in the state - and lack of broad name recognition of the Democrat candidates - to make the reliably blue state race unusually competitive.

• If Hogan could pull off a shock victory it would likely doom Democrats' prospect of retaining the chamber as there are few opportunities elsewhere on the 2024 Senate map for Democrats to offset the loss. Democrats only have the Texas seat of Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Florida seat of Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) as long-shot opportunities to flip a seat.
• We consider the Maryland seat unlikely to flip Republican, but considering Democrats are fighting a multi-front battle to maintain their one-seat Senate majority, a competitive Maryland race could divert Democrat campaign funds from must-win races in Ohio, Montana, Arizona, and Nevada - tipping those races towards the GOP.
• Tate Mitchell, a National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman, told Washington Post: “The Trone-Alsobrooks primary has become the nastiest in the country, dividing Democrats as they head into a competitive general election. Meanwhile, Gov. Hogan has been traveling the state with a positive message of bringing change to Washington the same way he brought change to Annapolis.”