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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORWAY
- Headed into Friday's CPI release (the last before the June Norges Bank projection round), the NOK I-44 trade weighted FX rate puts NOK considerably below CB forecasts and within range of the lowest levels since the pandemic in 2020: Monday's I-44 at 124.46 remains well above NB's Q2 projection of 119.50.
- Consensus looks for 6.3% (with a range of 6.1 - 6.5%) on both headline CPI as well as the underlying CPI-ATE measure - both above the NB estimates in March for Q2 CPI at 5.14% and 6.01% for CPI-ATE.
- NOK weakness has proved a critical factor in the persistence of core inflation across Norway this year, with markets closely eyeing the FX purchase operations of the central bank. The speculation around FX transactions is clearly eliciting concern among the board, to the extent that the Norges Bank published an opinion piece last week defending the practice, stating that while FX purchases are "a task that is entirely separate from monetary policy", they "cannot exclude the possibility that our transactions may have some influence on the NOK exchange rate".
Figure 1: CPI-ATE, I-44 forecasts look increasingly out-dated 
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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