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May Housing Wrap: Affordability Improves As Mortgage Interest Costs Fall

CANADA
  • Housing market was overall stagnant in May, with the expected spring resurgence not yet in sight.
  • April home sales -1.7% MOM with the average resale price also falling -1.8% YOY.
  • Teranet Housing Index prices +5.7% YOY, prior +5.6%, with the press release adding that "market activity remains sluggish in the spring."
  • New listings +2.8% MOM, one of the largest monthly gains on record, making the overall number of properties rise +6.5% in April.
  • Six-month moving average housing starts fell in April to 239K, or -2.2%, continuing a downward trend in construction.
  • National Bank of Canada says affordability improved for the first time in two quarters in Q1 as mortgage interest rates and house prices moderate and incomes rise.
  • Oxford Economics expects mortgage interest costs to slow to +8.7% YOY in Q4 this year from a peak of +30.7% in Q3 2023.
  • BoC's Financial Stability Report found indicators of financial stress have been mostly unchanged for mortgage holders, whereas renters have been more vulnerable to higher interest-rates. The Bank also expects higher wages to mitigate the impact of refinancing at higher rates.
  • Bank regulator OSFI annual risk outlook renews warnings about variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages, about 15% of the market. Says these borrowers at risk of significant payment shock.
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  • Housing market was overall stagnant in May, with the expected spring resurgence not yet in sight.
  • April home sales -1.7% MOM with the average resale price also falling -1.8% YOY.
  • Teranet Housing Index prices +5.7% YOY, prior +5.6%, with the press release adding that "market activity remains sluggish in the spring."
  • New listings +2.8% MOM, one of the largest monthly gains on record, making the overall number of properties rise +6.5% in April.
  • Six-month moving average housing starts fell in April to 239K, or -2.2%, continuing a downward trend in construction.
  • National Bank of Canada says affordability improved for the first time in two quarters in Q1 as mortgage interest rates and house prices moderate and incomes rise.
  • Oxford Economics expects mortgage interest costs to slow to +8.7% YOY in Q4 this year from a peak of +30.7% in Q3 2023.
  • BoC's Financial Stability Report found indicators of financial stress have been mostly unchanged for mortgage holders, whereas renters have been more vulnerable to higher interest-rates. The Bank also expects higher wages to mitigate the impact of refinancing at higher rates.
  • Bank regulator OSFI annual risk outlook renews warnings about variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages, about 15% of the market. Says these borrowers at risk of significant payment shock.