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May Jobs Data Key To Outlook

AUSTRALIA DATA

Today employment data for May print. The labour market has been very tight and while vacancies are off their peaks, they remain elevated. April saw jobs fall 4.3k and the May data should clarify whether this was related to Easter holidays or a sign that significant monetary tightening is impacting employment. Westpac unemployment expectations rose strongly in June.

  • Bloomberg consensus expects employment rose a moderate 17.5k in May. Forecasts are very varied from -10k to +45k with most between +10k and 25k. Of the local banks NAB is at the lower end forecasting +10k, ANZ +15k, CBA +20k and Westpac +40k.
  • The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 3.7% but considering April was 3.66% and March 3.54%, it won’t take much for it to be 3.6%. Analysts expect 3.7% with the upper end 3.8% and the lower end 3.6%. The big-4 local banks all expect 3.7%.
  • The participation rate is projected to stay at 66.7%.
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