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mBank Don't See CPI Slowing to Single Digits in August, Cuts Wait Until October

POLAND
  • mBank Research do not expect Polish inflation to fall to single digits in August, despite this morning's softer-than-expected CPI. They forecast August inflation at 10.2-10.3%.
  • As such, they continue to expect a rate cut in October and not September, as only in October will inflation have slipped to single digits.
  • Nonetheless, they write that a rate cut can "probably" occur in September, even with double digit inflation. They see this because Glapinski's communications do not have to be "dynamically consistent" as a cut is already priced, the PLN is strong and this line of reasoning could be presented to policymakers.
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