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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- NBP Kotecki mentioned in a recent interview that the central bank’s communication is a ‘problem’ and thinks that the NBP underestimated the risks of inflation.
- Kotecki added that measures introduced by the government will increase inflation and reiterated that the PLN is currently undervalued.
- As for HUF, the increase in risk aversion has also been weighing on the zloty; therefore, we would need to see a significant USD consolidation for PLN to experience a sharp bull retracement.
- Based on our BEER model (using terms of terms, inflation and rate differentials as explanatory variables), PLN is currently trading 16% below its ‘fundamental’ value (USD, see chart).
- USDPLN has been testing its ST key support at 4.5860 in the past week, which corresponds to the 61.8% FIbo retracement of the 4.1490 – 4.8560 range. A break below that level would open the door for a move down to 4.5350 (50DMA). On the topside, resistance to watch stands at 4.6660.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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