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MEXICO: Economic Activity Expected To Moderate In August

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • Economic activity data for August will be published tomorrow, with consensus for no change in GDP over the month (vs. +0.58% m/m in July) and for annual growth to slow to 0.8% y/y, from 3.78%.
    • JP Morgan sees GDP edging up by a tenth in August and tracking in line with their 4.1%ar forecast for Q3. After soft IP data, JPM expects better news in the tertiary sector, with output there up 0.4% m/m. Solid card spending and same-store sales data point to a robust 0.6%m/m gain in retail sales. This may be offset somewhat by softer business-related services output. Nevertheless, the fact that service-demand and income survey-based measures picked up in August from already strong levels in July gives JPM reassurance on a strong month for services overall.
    • Meanwhile, Scotiabank expects economic activity to increase by 1.1% y/y in August, with industrial activity growing by 0.7% y/y, while services are projected to rise 1.5% y/y.
    • Itaú also expects a moderation in growth to 0.8% y/y in August, following the above-consensus increase in July, which was driven by an unexpected jump in agricultural goods.
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  • Economic activity data for August will be published tomorrow, with consensus for no change in GDP over the month (vs. +0.58% m/m in July) and for annual growth to slow to 0.8% y/y, from 3.78%.
    • JP Morgan sees GDP edging up by a tenth in August and tracking in line with their 4.1%ar forecast for Q3. After soft IP data, JPM expects better news in the tertiary sector, with output there up 0.4% m/m. Solid card spending and same-store sales data point to a robust 0.6%m/m gain in retail sales. This may be offset somewhat by softer business-related services output. Nevertheless, the fact that service-demand and income survey-based measures picked up in August from already strong levels in July gives JPM reassurance on a strong month for services overall.
    • Meanwhile, Scotiabank expects economic activity to increase by 1.1% y/y in August, with industrial activity growing by 0.7% y/y, while services are projected to rise 1.5% y/y.
    • Itaú also expects a moderation in growth to 0.8% y/y in August, following the above-consensus increase in July, which was driven by an unexpected jump in agricultural goods.