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US TSYS: Mexico Scores Tariff Delay, Canada & China Negotiations Ongoing

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish mostly higher Monday, curves twisting flatter with short end rates under pressure as projected rate hike pricing through mid-year cools. Markets reacted positively midmorning to headlines that Pres Trump agreed to delay 25% tariff on Mexico, negotiations on Canada & China ongoing but expected to begin tomorrow.
  • Well off early overnight low of 108-21.5, the March'25 10Y contract trades 109-00 (+5) after the bell vs. 109-15.5 high - briefly through initial technical resistance of 109-10.5 (50D EMA) with focus on 109-31 (High Dec 18); the 2Y contract -1.25 at 102-24.75; 2s10s -5.988 at 27.761.
  • Stocks pared losses on the news, the DJIA trading in the green briefly (44,594.54) before receding ahead anoth heavy earnings announcement docket this week.
  • FX markets have been extremely volatile Monday, with the initial likely implementation of tariffs prompting a broad strengthening of the greenback, and particular pressure on the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar. Despite the headlines being Mexico centric, similar price action saw USDCAD almost reverse the entire gap to last Friday’s close, hitting a pullback low of 1.4546 from session highs of 1.4793.
  • Tariff negotiations with Canada and China ongoing, while data focus turns to this week's CPI, PPI and January employment report this Friday.
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  • Treasuries look to finish mostly higher Monday, curves twisting flatter with short end rates under pressure as projected rate hike pricing through mid-year cools. Markets reacted positively midmorning to headlines that Pres Trump agreed to delay 25% tariff on Mexico, negotiations on Canada & China ongoing but expected to begin tomorrow.
  • Well off early overnight low of 108-21.5, the March'25 10Y contract trades 109-00 (+5) after the bell vs. 109-15.5 high - briefly through initial technical resistance of 109-10.5 (50D EMA) with focus on 109-31 (High Dec 18); the 2Y contract -1.25 at 102-24.75; 2s10s -5.988 at 27.761.
  • Stocks pared losses on the news, the DJIA trading in the green briefly (44,594.54) before receding ahead anoth heavy earnings announcement docket this week.
  • FX markets have been extremely volatile Monday, with the initial likely implementation of tariffs prompting a broad strengthening of the greenback, and particular pressure on the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar. Despite the headlines being Mexico centric, similar price action saw USDCAD almost reverse the entire gap to last Friday’s close, hitting a pullback low of 1.4546 from session highs of 1.4793.
  • Tariff negotiations with Canada and China ongoing, while data focus turns to this week's CPI, PPI and January employment report this Friday.