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MEXICO: USDMXN at Fresh Cycle Highs as Election Result Approaches

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • In nervous anticipation of tonight’s US vote count, the Mexican peso continues to trade in a volatile manner and USDMXN strength has been exacerbated on the breach of last Friday’s cycle highs.
  • Moves have been specific to MXN as the broader dollar trades poorly against the majority of G10 currencies on Tuesday. Local news is unlikely to be driving the significant moves, however, there have been reports that Mexico’s congress will discuss and seek to approve the elimination of autonomous bodies including the Federal Economic Competition Commission, highlighting the ongoing reform risks in the country.
  • Given the sharp moves in recent trade and the significant volatility implied by overnight pricing, here is a refresh of the short- and medium-term technical resistance points for the pair:
    • 20.4578, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 18 - Oct 1 - Oct 4 price swing
    • 20.7642, the 76.4% retracement from the 2021 high / 2024 low.
    • 21.0535, the Jul 2022 high
    • 22.1550, the Nov 2021 high
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  • In nervous anticipation of tonight’s US vote count, the Mexican peso continues to trade in a volatile manner and USDMXN strength has been exacerbated on the breach of last Friday’s cycle highs.
  • Moves have been specific to MXN as the broader dollar trades poorly against the majority of G10 currencies on Tuesday. Local news is unlikely to be driving the significant moves, however, there have been reports that Mexico’s congress will discuss and seek to approve the elimination of autonomous bodies including the Federal Economic Competition Commission, highlighting the ongoing reform risks in the country.
  • Given the sharp moves in recent trade and the significant volatility implied by overnight pricing, here is a refresh of the short- and medium-term technical resistance points for the pair:
    • 20.4578, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 18 - Oct 1 - Oct 4 price swing
    • 20.7642, the 76.4% retracement from the 2021 high / 2024 low.
    • 21.0535, the Jul 2022 high
    • 22.1550, the Nov 2021 high