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MEXICO: USDMXN Stabilises Although Remains Comfortably Above Breakout Point

MEXICO
  • The stabilisation for risk sentiment/equities yesterday was bolstered by the stronger-than-expected US ISM Services print. This assisted a solid recovery for the Mexican peso, after early price action highlighted its lingering fragility to sharp bouts of risk-off.
  • Monday’s initial sharp declines for MXNJPY likely exacerbated the price action, with the cross extending the decline from the July highs to an impressive 22%. This prompted USDMXN to briefly rise as high as 20.2181 before order was restored.
  • Overnight, USDMXN has re-tested the prior breakout level around 19.20 but now consolidates between 19.40/50 heading into the US session. A lack of tier-one US data on Tuesday might keep volatility more contained, with risk taking its cues from developments for global tech names and geopolitics.
  • Banxico decision takes focus Thursday, with analysts evenly divided between a hold and a 25bp cut.  Recent positive trends in Mexican core inflation have increased the likelihood of further easing, though peso weakness and other risks mean any decision could come via another split decision. The full MNI preview of the decision will be published later today.

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