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Mfg Sales Drop Adds To Wholesale Weakness In October

CANADA DATA
  • Manufacturing sales are indicated to have declined a heavy -2.7% M/M in October (seasonally adjusted), the largest single month drop since February albeit after three solid monthly increases.
  • We don’t get volumes with this release, although it adds to the weak nominal outturn for wholesale sales in yesterday’s October advance (-1.1% M/M for ‘core’).
  • The manufacturing/wholesale reports point to a weaker backdrop than the aggregate retail data suggest, which are estimated to have increased a surprisingly strong 0.8% M/M vs some analysts looking for further weakness.
  • Combined with hours worked flat in October for no bounce from the -0.2% in Sept, the early October indicators on balance paint weak picture ahead of next week's monthly GDP print including its October advance estimate. The September GDP advance had pencilled in a third consecutive 0.0% M/M.

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