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MI Inflation Expectations Continue Trending Lower

AUSTRALIA DATA

Melbourne Institute inflation expectations had been at 4.5% for the three months to February but eased to 4.3% in March, its lowest since August 2021. Wages are expected to rise 1.2% over the coming year. The continued easing in inflation expectations is good news for the RBA but given the pickup in February services inflation, the April 24 Q1 CPI data will be watched closely.

  • The Westpac consumer sentiment survey pointed out that while inflation remains the main concern of household, news items are being viewed as unfavourable by fewer people.
  • Monthly inflation prints have also been surprising to the downside just above the top of the RBA’s band. Rates on hold since November are also likely reassuring people that inflation is returning to target.
  • The increase in petrol prices over the first few weeks of March didn’t seem to have an impact likely helped by falling 1.1% last week.
Australia MI inflation expectations vs CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS

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