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MI Inflation Gauge Elevated, Maybe Q1 The Peak?

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge for February posted a smaller monthly increase of 0.4% m/m compared with 0.9% last month bringing the annual rate to down slightly to 6.3% y/y from 6.4%, the second highest since the series began with January the highest. Possibly this indicator is very tentatively pointing to a peak in inflation at the start of 2023 but also that Q1 inflation could be higher than Q4. The RBA is widely expected to hike rates 25bp on Tuesday and with this data showing that price pressures remain elevated and are not yet easing significantly, the guidance is likely to maintain its tightening tone.

  • The trimmed mean eased moderately too. It rose 0.7% m/m and 4.9% y/y in February down from 0.9% m/m and 5.3% y/y the previous month. The monthly increase exceeding that of the headline series signals that domestically-driven price pressures remain.
  • The MI inflation gauge Q1 average to date is up 1.5% q/q and 5.9% y/y, stronger than Q4’s 1.3% q/q and 5.7% y/y.
Australia CPI vs MI inflation gauge y/y% (quarterly)

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS/Melbourne Institute

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