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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
The 11 point drop in the UMich consumer sentiment survey in August hasn't been seen very often: a drop that big was last seen in March/April 2020, and before that, October 2008 (financial crisis), September 2005 (Hurricane Katrina), and August 1990 (Iraq invaded Kuwait).
- Three of those four episodes were associated with a recession (Katrina was the exception).
- A recession hardly looks imminent in the current situation given the preponderance of economic data and forward indicators.
- But the sharp and unexpected fall in consumer sentiment should give some pause over the resilience of the consumer recovery amid the Delta COVID variant and high (if only temporarily so) inflation.
UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Upper) And M/M Change (Lower)Source: UMichigan, Bloomberg, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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