Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Eases Back

TTF is easing back today to the lowest level since 22 November amid steady supplies from Norway and LNG and smaller-than-normal storage withdrawals, weighed against slightly colder than normal temperatures this week.

• TTF DEC 23 down -5.3% at 44.2€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -5% at 45.2€/MWh
• JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0.1$/mmbtu at 2.29$/mmbtu
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are currently forecast to hold slightly below normal this week and into the start of December.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down again to 345.6mcm/d after recovering to 354mcm/d yesterday according to Bloomberg.
• European natural gas storage is down to 97.69% full on Nov 25 according to GIE data with recent withdrawals holding just below normal levels. The seasonal five year average is 86.5%.
• Russia gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached an all-time high according to Gazprom over the weekend.
• Russia and Turkey are set to reach agreement on the creation of a natural gas hub in Turkey in the near future according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
• European LNG sendout was back up to 375mcm/d on Nov 25 after a dip below 350mcm/d late last week but still well below levels around 450mcm/d for the period last year.
• Mediterranean LNG is currently trading at a small discount to NW Europe due to high gas inventories in Spain paired with lower demand and higher renewables according to Blomberg.
• The number of US LNG cargoes crossing the Panama Canal hasn’t changed much from 2022 as LNG’s priority slot has remained intact but this will end on Dec 1 according to Bloomberg.