Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Extends Gains

Front month TTF has interrupted the bearish trend and is extending yesterday’s gains to the highest since 15 February, amid slightly curbed Norwegian gas flows, while overall short-term fundamentals remain bearish.

• TTF MAR 24 up 4.1% at 25.4€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 3.8% at 25.88€/MWh
• The European Commission is proposing the adoption of a Council recommendation to extend European natural gas demand saving measures of 15%, compared with the April 2017 to March 2022 levels, by one year until 2025.
• Mild temperatures are forecast to persists across Europe in the coming two weeks with especially warm temperatures expected in central Europe.
• European gas storage was up at 63.48% full according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 46.7% as withdrawals increase back to near normal levels on Feb. 26.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today at 339.4mcm/d and in line with the average seen over the previous week.
• European LNG sendout was up again to 381mcm/d on Feb 26 according to Bloomberg to move further above the average seen to date in February but still below the Feb 2023 average of about 440mcm/d.
• The Energos Force FSRU is near Germany according to ICIS. This ship is expected soon to take up a position as an LNG import facility at Stade, near Hamburg.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities rose by 3.35% on the week to 2.16mn tons as of 25 February, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• Global LNG demand will increase this year as Chinese buyers have returned to the market, while European demand is increasing, TotalEnergies’ Senior Vice President Asia Pacific Exploration & Production Thomas Maurisse said, cited by Reuters.
• Woodside Energy has signed an agreement with South Koreas’ Kogas to supply 0.5mtpa of LNG for the duration of 10.5 years starting in 2026, the firm said.
• Gas imports to China are forecast to increase 8.2% to 179.1bcm in 2024 as demand rises 6.1% according to China National Petroleum Corp’s Economics & Technology Research Institute.
• Asian LNG prices have fallen below long-term contract rates, which is likely to boost some spot buying activity of price sensitive buyers according to Bloomberg.