Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Plunges

European TTF is falling sharply today weighed on by steady LNG flows and Norwegian gas pipeline supplies and limited risk of cold weather in the short term. Downside is limited amid concerns for the supply risks from rising Middle East tensions.

• TTF NOV 23 down -6.9% at 47.35€/MWh
• TTF Q124-NOV 23 up 0.8€/MWh at 6.7€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes drifted back near normal at 250k contracts yesterday.
• The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures are expected throughout most of the two week forecast period although could drift back towards normal at the end of October.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down at 294.4mcm/d due to a planned outage at Oseberg adding to unplanned outages at Asgard and SEGAL fields.
• European natural gas storage continues to slowly build up to the highest in over ten years at 98.12% full on 17 Oct according to GIE data.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 32.6% below the 2018-2021 average. Demand rose by 12.7% week on week, largely driven by a recovery in industrial demand use, Bnetza data showed.
• Finland determined that an external party was involved in the breach of the Balticconnector gas pipeline and the two data cables, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto said.
• Gazprom and CNPC signed an agreement of extra gas supplies through 2023 according to Bloomberg.
• Total European LNG sendout was slightly lower at 319mcm/d on 17 Oct according to Bloomberg after rising to 358mcm/d the previous day.
• Asian demand for LNG has been subdued as the market approaches winter, as high JKM prices and forecasts for above average temperatures keep a lid on buying. This is likely to put some downward pressure on prices in the near term.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM Nov 23 down -2.2% at 17.75$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0.5$/mmbtu at 3.1$/mmbtu
• BP shipped the first LNG cargo from the Tangguh Train 3 gas facility in Indonesia, which was initially scheduled to start commissioning in 2020, operator SKK Migas said in a statement.
• Russia is scheduled to start commissioning of the first train of the Arctic 2 LNG facility by late-2023 and the first cargoes will be shipped early next year according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak.
• The latest EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending 13 Oct will be released this afternoon at 15:30BST. The expectation is for a build of +83bcf according to a Bloomberg survey.