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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rallies Back

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TTF front month has rallied back to reverse the losses from yesterday supported by seasonal maintenance in Norway and amid an uncertain geopolitical outlook during Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks.

  • TTF JUN 24 up 3.2% at 28.97€/MWh
  • TTF Q3 24 up 3.3% at 29.57€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 266.1mcm/d with capacity outages totalling 79.3mcm/d today according to Gassco.
  • Norwegian outages due to planned maintenance are expected to range between 48.58mcm/d and 72.8mcm/d until May 9.
  • Temperatures across Europe are expected to be above normal throughout the two week forecast.
  • Total European gas storage is back within the previous five-year range at 61.77% full on April 28 according to GIE despite a return to net injections. The five-year seasonal average is 46.5% full.
  • The Freeport LNG plant in Texas is steadily increasing production after prolonged maintenance since late January after a deep freeze had impacted one of the trains.
  • The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 1.7% over the last week to 3.27m tons as of April 28, according to Bloomberg estimates.
  • Russian gas production increased almost 10% (or 16 bcm) yoy in Q1 2024 supported by stronger domestic demand and higher exports, although remained 3% below levels from 2021, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
  • Asia remains the most profitable destination for US LNG exports from June-October, according to BNEF.
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TTF front month has rallied back to reverse the losses from yesterday supported by seasonal maintenance in Norway and amid an uncertain geopolitical outlook during Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks.

  • TTF JUN 24 up 3.2% at 28.97€/MWh
  • TTF Q3 24 up 3.3% at 29.57€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 266.1mcm/d with capacity outages totalling 79.3mcm/d today according to Gassco.
  • Norwegian outages due to planned maintenance are expected to range between 48.58mcm/d and 72.8mcm/d until May 9.
  • Temperatures across Europe are expected to be above normal throughout the two week forecast.
  • Total European gas storage is back within the previous five-year range at 61.77% full on April 28 according to GIE despite a return to net injections. The five-year seasonal average is 46.5% full.
  • The Freeport LNG plant in Texas is steadily increasing production after prolonged maintenance since late January after a deep freeze had impacted one of the trains.
  • The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 1.7% over the last week to 3.27m tons as of April 28, according to Bloomberg estimates.
  • Russian gas production increased almost 10% (or 16 bcm) yoy in Q1 2024 supported by stronger domestic demand and higher exports, although remained 3% below levels from 2021, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
  • Asia remains the most profitable destination for US LNG exports from June-October, according to BNEF.