Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rebounds

Front month TTF is rising sharply, tracking Monday’s highs, supported by forecasts for colder weather in early January and risks to LNG supplies from the Red Sea disruption weighed against healthy near-term supplies and muted European demand.

• TTF JAN 24 up 6.5% at 35.71€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 6.7% at 36€/MWh
• ICIS has flagged a number of LNG vessel diversions because of recent attacks in the Bab al-Mandab strait.
• Latest weather forecasts suggest above normal temperatures in NW Europe until the end of the month, when temperatures are expected to shortly dip below the norm, boosting demand expectations.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 18.2% below the 2018-21 average, Bnteza data showed.
• Norwegian nominated flows to the UK and Northwest Europe terminals at 351.90 mcm/d vs 5-day moving avg 356.52 mcm/d.
• European gas storage was 88% full on Dec. 19 vs the 5-yr seasonal norm of 77% for this time of year according to GIE data.EU net gas storage withdrawals stood at 4,323GWh/d on 19 December, above the five-year average of 3,653Gwh/d.
• LNG flows to Northwest Europe on Dec. 19 were 269.40 mcm/d - in line with the 30-day average.
• China’s imports of LNG cargoes in the week to Dec. 27 is forecast at 2.03m mt, according to OilChem.