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Free AccessMid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Recovers Last Week’s Losses
TTF front month is extending gains throughout Monday, driven by a suspected leak in the undersea Baltic pipeline between Finland and Estonia after a drop in pressure and rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions. Supply disruptions remain a risk heading into the winter heating season with the potential for a restart to Australia LNG facility worker strikes.
- TTF NOV 23 up 12.4% at 42.97€/MWh
- TTF Q1 24 up 6.7% at 48.15€/MWh
- TTF SUM 24 up 5.5% at 46.51€/MWh
- ICE TTF aggregate traded volumes on Friday were below the recent average at 194k contracts.
- In light of the current tension in Israel, Chevron has been instructed by Israel’s Ministry of Energy to shut down the production at the Tamar Production platform, the firm said.
- The Finland, Estonia undersea Balticconnector gas pipeline was taken out of service on 8 October due to a suspected leak, according to Gasgrid Finland and Estonian gas TSO Elering.
- Australia’s Offshore Alliance said last week it will issue a notice for further industrial action on Monday. Strikes can begin seven days later.
- The latest weather forecast shows temperatures across NW Europe holding above normal this week before cooling from the middle of the month back to near normal.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 289.3mcm/d according to Gassco.
- European natural gas storage levels are gaining back towards the five year range highs up to 96.87% full on 7 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.5%. Net injections have increased slightly in the last week and in line with average rates from the previous five years. Net injections averaged about 1,799GWh/d in the week to 7 Oct compared to the five year average for the period of just under 1,820GWh/d.
- LNG sendout to Europe is today estimated at 277mcm/d compared to an average of around 300mcm/d over the last week.
- US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in November, December and January 2024. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $0.45/MMBtu in November according to BNEF.
- JKM Nov 23 up 10% at 14.03$/mmbtu
- JKM-TTF Nov 23 down 0$/mmbtu at 0.8$/mmbtu
- Global LNG imports are forecast to rise by 2% month on month in October to 31.3mn tons. This is up by 1% year on year according to BNEF.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.