Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Removes Some Weekly Gains

TTF front month is easing back today but remains on track for a weekly net increase of around 3% driven by a colder weather outlook next week and slightly higher storage withdrawals. Upside is limited given above-norm Norwegian gas flows and near-full gas stocks.

• TTF DEC 23 down -1.6% at 46.08€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -1.5% at 47.07€/MWh
• JKM-TTF DEC 23 down -0.1$/mmbtu at 2.23$/mmbtu
• The European weather forecast is relatively unchanged with temperatures in NW and central Europe dipping below normal this weekend where they are expected to remain into the first week of December.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down to 342.5mcm/d today from the recent highs due to an unplanned outage at Aasta Hansteen due to process problems expected until tomorrow.
• The damage to the Balticconnector natural gas pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia and the damage to the adjacent telecom cables in October was unlikely an accident, as investigations found the anchor of the Hong-Kong registered vessels was dragged along the seabed for hundreds of kilometers, Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Minister of Defence, told Swedish broadcaster SVT.
• European natural gas storage is down to 98.4% full on Nov 22 according to GIE data after near normal withdrawals but still well above the seasonal five year average of 87.4%.
• Northwest Europe has already received 61 LNG cargoes this month with another 15 expected before the end of the month according to Bloomberg ship tracking data. A total of 10 deliveries are currently scheduled from the first week of December.
• Pakistan LNG was seeking a cargo in a tender on a DES basis for 8-9 January delivery, for which it received the lowest offer from OQ Trading at $18.46/mmbtu, traders told Bloomberg.
• India needs to secure long-term LNG agreements to meet growing gas demand and ensure price stability according to Sandeep Jain, Executive Director at Indian Oil.
• India is looking to build its first strategic natural gas reserves with an initial capacity to store 3-4bcm of gas, Sumit Kishore, an executive director at GAIL said.
• Chinese LNG re-export activity has picked up this year and is likely to grow through this winter, amid global volatility and arbitrage opportunities according to ICIS analyst Fei Xu.