Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slides

TTF front month is trending lower today as markets are awaiting updates on the damage of the Balticconnector gas pipeline and the possible restart to Australian industrial action. Near-full storage and the end to Norwegian gas maintenance season are adding further downside.

• TTF NOV 23 down -2.2% at 48.36€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were again high yesterday up at 441k contracts compared to 330k the day before.
• The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe this week falling down slightly below normal from the middle of the month.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 305.5mcm/d as supplies continue to slowly recover from seasonal maintenance. The maintenance at the St. Fergus terminal has been further delayed.
• The subsea gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Estonia under the Baltic Sea have been damaged deliberately, the Finnish Government said on Tuesday. While it is too early to draw conclusions, the Estonian Defense Minister said the leak was caused by heavy force.
• Australia Strikes: Chevron and the unions representing workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities in Australia made progress in talks over pay and conditions on Wednesday and would meet again on Thursday, a union representative said, cited by Reuters.
• Chevron is re-routing gas offshore Israeli gas to Egypt via a pipeline in Jordan due to the shutdown of the Tamar field due to security fears after the Hamas attacks at the weekend.
• Near normal injection rates in the last week have helped European natural gas storage levels back up towards the five year range highs at 97.09% full on 9 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.79%.
• LNG sendout to Europe is estimated up at 350mcm/d on 10 Oct according to Bloomberg compared to 267mcm/d the previous day.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese power generators increased by 16.7% on the week to 1.89 million tons as of 8 October, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in November, December and January 2024. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $0.48/MMBtu in November according to BNEF.
• JKM Nov 23 down -2.6% at 15.42$/mmbtu
• JKM-TTF Nov 23 down -0.2$/mmbtu at 0.38$/mmbtu
• QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies have signed a 27-year supply deal for the delivery of 3.5mtpa of LNG to France.