Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Surges on Supply Risks

TTF front month is extending gains throughout the session to the highest since 22 August with near term supply risks due to a prolonged maintenance period in Norway, US export terminal maintenance and some lingering concerns from Australia LNG supply, combined with a slightly cooler weather forecast into October.

• TTF OCT 23 up 11.2% at 44.26€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 5.7% at 50.1€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 3.5% at 50.5€/MWh
• The front month has risen to an intra-day high of €44.45/MWh.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 256.7mcm/d as field and processing plants gradually return from maintenance. An unplanned maintenance at the large Troll field in Norway will reduce supplies by 5mcm/d on 25-26 September and 25mcm/d of unavailable supply on 26-27 September, Gassco remit data show. The outage will lift Norway’s unavailable natural gas supplies to 119mcm/d on Tuesday, compared with 94mcm/d previously scheduled.
• The Skarv gas field in Norway is expected to see additional cuts of 22.1mcm/d until early next month due to process problems on top of the planned outages.
• European natural gas storage is up to 94.74% full on 23 Sep with injection rates recovering slightly in recent days according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 86.1%.
• The latest month ahead weather forecast shows above normal temperatures over the next week before cooling back towards normal during the first week of October.
• Chevron failed to provide the unions with an agreement that incorporates agreed bargaining outcomes and the recommendations of the Fair Work Commissions according to the Offshore Alliance.
• European natural gas demand won’t tail off until at least the end of the next decade according to Uniper.
• The expansion of Qatar’s North Field LNG project is going well and there is a possibility of selling all of the LNG capacity from the project by the end of this year, Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs said.
• China’s imports of LNG in August rose 7.81% on the month to 6.30m mt, according to the General Administration of Customs of China.