Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Tracks Small Weekly Net Gain

TTF is pulling back after some gains earlier in the session amid relatively bearish short-term fundamentals with high inventories, above-norm weather and sufficient supplies. Front month futures are on track for a small weekly net increase driven by heightened LNG supply risks amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East conflict, while gas demand is expected to ramp up from late next week amid colder weather.

• TTF MAR 24 down -0.7% at 28.79€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.6% at 29.43€/MWh
• CBS News sources reported the US has a series of strikes planned in the coming days in response to the drone attack on a Jordanian outpost that killed three US service personnel over the weekend.
• Temperatures in most of Europe are expected to remain mild in the coming week although are forecast to fall back to near or slightly below normal during the second week of the outlook.
• Nominations for Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are unchanged from yesterday at 346.6mcm/d and in line with the average seen in January.
• European natural gas storage was at 70.17 full on Jan 31 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 57.1% as net withdrawal rates hold just below normal levels.
• LNG imports into Europe and Turkey were 4.9% down month on month from 15.8bcm to 15bcm in January according to preliminary Kpler data.
• Japanese LNG imports stood at just below 6mn tons in January, the lowest level for any January since 2009, amid higher nuclear generation capacity, higher renewables output and energy-saving measures, Bloomberg data showed.
• US LNG exports fell nearly 5% from 8.7 m metric tons in December to 8.3m metric tons in January according to LSEG data with weaker exports set to continue into February.
• Approximately 250mtpa of incremental global supply is due online between now and 2030 according to the central case by Timera Energy including 98mtpa of permitted US supply.
• Upcoming maintenance at Brazil’s Rota 1 offshore gas pipeline could boost support for LNG imports, according to Platts.