Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Tracks Weekly Net Gain

European gas markets are pulling back today after Iranian media have been downplaying Israel’s attack on Iran, while Iranian military is reportedly not planning an imminent retaliation. Front month TTF, however, is on track for a weekly net gain, supported by supply risks amid geopolitical tensions, cooler weather and supply disruptions in Norwegian gas flows.

• TTF MAY 24 down 1.6% at 31.8€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 down 1.6% at 32.29€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down 1.2% at 36.94€/MWh
• Israel and Iran have played down the significance of an overnight Israeli strike on a military facility near the Iranian city of Isfahan. It is unclear the extent of the damage, but the attack, whilst hitting targets within Iran, appears to fallen short of the worst-case scenario of a major strike of Iranian nuclear or energy infrastructure.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are at 336.5mcm/d today but are still restricted slightly by small capacity reductions at Karsto, Ormen Lange and Gulfaks today.
• Colder than normal temperatures are expected in NW and central Europe in the coming week before rising back to normal for the last couple of days of the month.
• European gas storage was up to 62.06% full on Apr. 17 according to GIE compared to the seasonal five year average of 43.4% with little change in total stock levels on the day.
• German natural gas consumption last week fell 34.2% below the 2018-21 average, as demand from households and small businesses fell 51.5% below the average, Bnetza data showed.
• European LNG sendout was stable at 349mcm/d on Apr. 17 compared to an average of 336mcm/d so far in April.
• The EU’s LNG demand is likely to peak this year as the bloc accelerates the transition to renewable energies, ACER said in a report.
• US LNG exports are still more profitable to Asia over Europe throughout the summer period according to BNEF despite a net gain in European gas prices this week amid escalating Middle East risks, Norwegian supply outages and curtailed US terminal feedgas flows.
• An over-contracted position of Japan’s four largest utilities (JERA, Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, and Kansai Electric) could increase to almost 12m tonnes in the coming years according to IEEFA.