Mid-Day Oil & Products Summary: Crude Eases Back

Crude is trending down today. The market is weighing risks of a further escalation of Middle East tensions and falling US crude stocks against a lower demand revision from the latest OPEC monthly report.

• Brent OCT 24 down 0.5% at 81.85$/bbl
• WTI SEP 24 down 0.5% at 79.68$/bbl
• The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow.
• OPEC lowered its demand growth to 2.1m b/d for 2024, down 135k b/d compared to last month’s assessment, according to the MOMR
• IEA forecast for global oil demand was just slightly lower than predicted in last month’s report with growth of 970kb/d in 2024 and 953kb/d in 2025.
• The oil market could switch from a deficit due to peak summer demand to a surplus in Q4 if OPEC+ increases supply as is currently planned, according to the latest IEA Oil Monthly Report.
• Brent crude futures are set to recover to the mid-$80s/bbl amid a rebound in financial demand from its record low, according to Goldman Sachs cited by Bloomberg.
• US oil sanctions policy could change significantly change if Trump wins the election, expects told Platts.
• A Kamala Harris presidency would likely follow Biden in backing policies to keep Iranian and Venezuelan barrels in the market, experts told Platts.
• US gasoline cracks are losing further ground today, with pressure from a drop in demand, according to GasBuddy data.
• US gasoline crack down 0.5$/bbl at 22.23$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 21.57$/bbl
• Crude processing rates at China’s state and independent oil refiners may increase to 69.6% of capacity in August up from 69.4% expected in July, according to OilChem cited by Bloomberg.
• China’s gasoil prices are expected to remain soft in August, according to OilChem.