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Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Falls

OIL

Front month crude is trending lower today at the lowest since 15 February as the market is assessing the risk from strong US and non-OPEC supply and concerns of weak demand in US and China against a potential for an extension to OPEC+ supply cuts amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

    • Brent APR 24 down -0.5% at 81.24$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24 down -0.4% at 76.17$/bbl
  • The Apr24 Brent options expire against the 19:30BST futures close price today with the largest open interest currently at the 80$/bbl and 81$/bbl strikes.
  • The US flagged, owned and operated oil/chemical tanker M/V Torm Thor was targeted by the Houthi's on February 24 at 11:45pm (Sannaa time).
  • Libya’s ~45kbd Wafa field has resumed shipments following a short halt on Sunday after staff demanded better pay according to a Bloomberg source.
  • Iraqi crude flows towards Europe are being impacted by Red Sea disruptions according to Vortexa.
  • Crude floating storage, stationary for at least seven days, fell to 66.43m bbl as of February 23 - down 7.5% from 71.78m bbl on February 16 according to Vortexa.
  • Strong travel in China over the Lunar New Year holiday has driven an increase in demand supporting crude purchases by refiners ahead of expected maintenance during Q2.
  • Fully or partially electric vehicles are expected to result in a cumulative loss of 0.9mb/d in global gasoline demand by 2030 according to a JP Morgan note.
  • The following are the new maintenance plans for Chinese domestic refineries, according to OilChem, currently totalling 10.9mtpa of offline CDU capacity.
  • European imports of US diesel so far this month declined to 6.65mn barrels, down from11.44mn barrels, Kpler data showed, weighed on by lower US refining activity amid refinery outages and disruptions to global trade in recent weeks.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are continuing to find support since late last week. The US is set to have a second, smaller refinery maintenance period peak in April, following the spring maintenance which peaked in February, according to IIR Energy, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 100kbpd cat feed hydrotreater at BP’s 435kbpd Whiting, Indiana, refinery was shut on 22 February after it was restarted one day before, according to WoodMac.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.8$/bbl at 29.45$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.9$/bbl at 35.33$/bbl
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