Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Rebounds on Positive Demand Outlook

Crude prices are rebounding and recovered some of yesterday’s losses following the comments from Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak that the oil market balance between demand and supply is fragile and an upward revision for this year’s oil demand forecast from the IEA. Prices also received support from a lower US dollar ahead of today’s US CPI data release. Delayed EIA weekly petroleum inventory data are also due later.

• Brent DEC 23 up 0.9% at 86.61$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 0.7% at 84.1$/bbl
• WTI-Brent down -0.07$/bbl at -3.86$/bbl
• API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday: Crude +12.94mbbl, Cushing -0.547mbbl, Gasoline +3.65mbbl, Distillate -3.54mbbl
• The day delayed EIA weekly petroleum inventory data for the week to 6 Oct is due for release this afternoon at 16:00BST.
• The US CPI data due at 08:30 ET is expected at 3.6% y/y from the prior 3.7%.
• The IEA Monthly Oil Market Report revised up global oil demand growth for this year by 100kbpd to 2.3mbpd to reach 101.9mbpd in 2023, driven by growth in China, India and Brazil according to
• The EIA STEO report yesterday revised down its forecast for the current supply deficit during 4Q23 to 60kbpd, compared with a deficit of 230kbpd during last month’s report.
• Brent prices could rise to 105$/bbl if Iran’s oil exports were to fall to year-ago levels due to increased enforcement of sanctions according to Goldman Sachs.
• Saudi’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak interview: Oil producers will continue to work together and act pre-emptively according to bin Salman while Novak said the balance between supply and demand is fragile and could be affected by slowing global economic growth.
• Russia forecasts global oil demand to grow by 2.4mbpd, hitting a new all-time high this year, Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak said.
• Iraq is ready to restart oil flows through the Iraq/Turkey pipeline (ITP) but still requires an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government according to Iraqi prime minister.
• Forties October crude supplies are facing increased demand from Asian buyers according to Kpler and LSEG data pushing it to a $2.15/bbl premium to dated Brent October 6 – its highest since August 2022.
• Diesel cracks rallied but gasoline remained relatively unchanged yesterday ahead of the updated EIA inventory data due out later today. The API data last night suggested a large increase in crude stocks but with another draw at Cushing while gasoline built and distillates drew.
• Brazil will continue to import Russian diesel to contain prices for its domestic market according to Minister Alexandre Silveira.
• US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 8.77$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 42.97$/bbl