Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Recovers Some Losses

Crude front month has recovered some earlier losses after falling to a daily low of $80.23/bbl, following headlines that the Russian government and oil companies are discussing to lift bans on some gasoline products. Earlier downside was driven by strength in the US dollar amid concerns over US and China demand growth.

• Brent JAN 24 down -0.8% at 80.95$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 down -0.9% at 76.66$/bbl
• Gasoil NOV 23 down -1.6% at 843$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.05$/bbl at -4.4$/bbl
• The Russian government is discussing with oil companies to lift the ban on some gasoline exports, Russia’s Energy Minister confirmed, cited by Interfax. The government is considering lifting the ban on gasoline exports with an octane number of up to Al-95, sources familiar with the matter said, as the Russian market does not need as much gasoline with octane of 92 and below.
• API weekly oil stock data: Crude +11.9mbbl, Cushing +1.1mbbl, Gasoline -0.4mbbl, Distillate +1mbbl
• ARA crude inventories rose 175k bbl or 0.4% in the week ended Nov 3 to 49mn bbls according to Genscape.
• The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will not be release today due to a planned systems upgrade.
• The EIA STEO yesterday forecast Brent to average 90.27$/bbl in Q4 and 93.24$/bbl in 2024, up 1.8% due to an expected increase in supply but demand should also be stronger.
• The US could reimpose energy sanctions on Venezuela if commitments towards free elections and the release of more political prisoners are not met by 30 November according to White House senior adviser Juan Gonzales.
• Venezuela’s PDVSA have signed a crude and gas production agreement aimed at boosting volumes with France’s Maurel & Prom.
• Kazakhstan is ready to move more Russia oil and gas according to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ahead of Putin’s visit this week.
• Kazakhstan’s oil production is estimated to rise to 90-94mn tons next year, up from an expected 89mn tons this year, Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said, cited by Bloomberg.
• Russian ESPO crude prices have slipped to a discount to Brent in Chinese ports as its demand eases and freight costs have jumped.
• Crude shipments from Guyana are set to hit 516k b/d in December, according to loading programmes. This is up 55% from the 333k forecasted exports in November. January loadings remain unchanged at 16m bbl, Bloomberg said.
• Crude oil storage capacity utilisation in China was 57.31% as of Nov. 8, according to OilChem, down 0.45 percentage points on the week.
• The per capital US fuel consumption is expected to the lowest in two decades according to EIA. Total demand is seen at 8.83mbpd due to higher prices and cost of living pressures although a smaller drop than previously expected.
• Russia’s oil product exports are showing signs of recovery driven by fuel oil and jet fuel following export restrictions and seasonal maintenance.
• Russian diesel is no longer competitive in Brazil, Petrobras CEO Jean Paul Prates said.
• Profit margins at China’s independent refiners turned negative in late October for the first time since early January driven by higher crude prices and weakening demand for diesel and gasoline according to JLC.
• Fujairah oil product stockpiles rose 4.8% in the week ended Nov. 6 to 17.873mn bbls according to Fujairah Oil Industry Zone data.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 14.2$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 40.57$/bbl