Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Regains Ground

Crude futures are edging higher today with support from reports that the Iraq/Turkey pipeline is unable to restart despite earlier optimism following comments from Turkey’s Energy Minister that the pipeline is ready to operate this week.

• Brent DEC 23 up 0.9% at 93.05$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 0.8% at 91.55$/bbl
• WTI-Brent up 1.12$/bbl at -3.41$/bbl
• The Iraq/Turkey pipeline is unable to restart until commercial and financial issues have been resolved according to a senior Iraqi official. It follows earlier reports by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar that the pipeline could begin flows again this week. “Within this week, we will start operating the Iraq Turkey pipeline after resuming operations, it will be able to supply half a million barrels, almost, to global oil markets” Bayraktar had said on the matter.
• Iraq’s crude oil exports in September rose to 103.143mn barrels, or 3.438mbpd, from the fields under the central government’s control, up from 3.42mbpd in August, Iraq’s oil ministry said.
• The market will be looking for future market indications from the Adipec summit in Abu Dhabi from 2-5 Oct this week with scheduled speakers including UAE energy minster and OPEC secretary general. OPEC remains optimistic about global oil demand growth and views under-investment as a risk to energy security according to OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais.
• The next OPEC+ JMMC monitoring committee meeting also takes place on Wednesday this week.
• Brent crude will collapse to the low $70s/bbl next year as the global market swings back to a surplus, according to a Citigroup report.
• Crude floating storage stationary for seven days has fallen to 82.52mn bbls September 29 according to Vortexa, down 11% from a week earlier.
• Russian crude exports from its Pacific terminals fell in September according to Bloomberg vessel tracking. Crude flows out of Kozmino and De Kastri on the Russian mainland, and Prigorodnoye on Sakhalin Island, left at a pace of 1.04mn bpd in September; down from a revised 1.11mn bpd in August.
• Kazakhstan’s crude and condensate production rose in September to around 1.78mn bpd from around 1.66mn bpd in August after Tengiz maintenance work was completed.
• Russian oil products exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse are set to fall by 12.9% month on month on a daily basis to 1.142mn tons according to traders, cited by Reuters.
• Diesel cracks are holding onto gains from late last week after suggestions of near zero diesel export from Russia in October following the fuel export ban.
• US ULSD crack up 0.6$/bbl at 48.01$/bbl
• Gasoil OCT 23 up 0.2% at 1004$/mt