Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Stabilizes

Front month crude is stabilizing after nearly a 5$/bbl rally on Friday driven by concern for an escalation of the Israel conflict in the Middle East. Tight supplies from OPEC+ cuts including Saudi Arabia voluntary reductions until the end of the year are also supporting prices and offsetting economic driven demand uncertainty.

• Brent DEC 23 down -0.2% at 90.75$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 0% at 87.71$/bbl
• Gasoil NOV 23 up 0.2% at 929$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.16$/bbl at -4.41$/bbl
• Crude managed money net long positions fell last week back to levels seen in August according to Commitments of Traders data released on Friday. The combined net long positions for Brent and WTI decreased by -102k to 390k with ICE Brent down to the lowest since May.
• The US has been holding back-channel talks with Iranian officials to warn them against escalating the conflict in Israel according to White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
• Markets are closely watching tensions in the Middle East and any escalation in the conflict could see oil prices rise rapidly, co-founder of Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, said in an interview.
• The amount of crude oil held around the world on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell by 389,000 bbl to 74.1m bbl as of 13 October, the lowest since December, Vortexa data show.
• Azerbaijan’s oil exports in the first nine months of 2023 fell 3.6% compared to the same period last year.
• The Indian government has been reluctant to allow its refineries to buy Russian oil using Chinese yuan which is holding up payments for seven cargoes at present.
• Russia and Venezuelan officials are set to meet Monday with energy partnerships on the agenda at a time when the US is looking at further easing oil related sanctions on Maduro’s government.
• China's independent refineries may be required to source alternative feedstocks amid growing expectations that the country may not issue additional crude import quotas towards the end of the year, which could boost import demand for fuel oil, bitumen blend and other heavy oils, sources told S&P Commodity Insights.
• Overall refinery margins are expected to remain healthy due to strong middle distillates, such as gasoil and jet fuel and despite falling gasoline and high-sulfur fuel oil cracks according to FGE.
• Diesel sales by India’s state-run refiners increased by 9.6% on the month to 299.9k barrels in the first 15 days of October data from officials familiar with the matter showed.
• US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 7.69$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down -0.6$/bbl at 46.6$/bbl