Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE, Nordics Fall on Energy Complex, Weather

CWE power futures are falling today after last week’s rally amid losses in European gas prices and carbon allowances, while forecasts suggested cooler weather from next week. Nordic Sept power base load is tracking a new contract low, with losses in neighbouring markets and forecasts for a wetter outlook and a positive hydrological balance in Norway.

• France Base Power SEP 24 down 6.7% at 57.8 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 5.6% at 82.12 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 3.6% at 68.07 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 down 5.2% at 34.76 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal SEP 24 down 1.8% at 120 USD/MT
• TTF front month is pulling back today driven by weak wider market risk appetite and easing warm temperatures forecast despite supply risks from Middle East tensions. A bear threat in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains present and the contract is trading lower today as it starts the week on a bearish note.
• EU ETS Dec24 is pulling back, erasing some of last week’s gains amid lower gas prices and forecasts for cooler weather in NW Europe, limiting power demand for cooling and fossil-fuel generation.
• The latest EU ETS CAP3 EU auction cleared at €67.02/ton CO2e, down from €68.07/ton CO2e in the previous auction, according to EEX.
• Monthly volumes on EEX Group’s global power markets surged by 35% on the year to 814.6TWh, driven by a 61% growth in European power market derivates.
• French hydropower reserves last week – week 31 – declined to 86.6% of capacity, or 3.109TWh, down by 0.45 percentage points on the week, RTE data showed.
• The planned maintenance at 910MW Gravelines 4 has been extended by four days until 17 August.
• EdF extended potential nuclear production curbs at the 2.62GW Golfech reactors by three days until 14 August due to high temperatures forecast on the Garonne river, with one unit in must run amid grid constraints.
• The French Q2 2025 and Q3 2025 power contracts are likely undervalued currently, even if RTE decided to reintroduce export cuts on France’s eastern borders next year, ICIS said.
• Poland’s PGE Group is advancing with the 900MW Baltica offshore wind farm and has contracted Energoprojekt-Katowice to prepare a conceptual design for the wind farm.