Mid-Day Power Summary: French-German Week-Ahead Discount Widens

The French-German week-ahead power spread is widening today, amid stronger French wind forecasts anticipated early next week compared to Germany, with nuclear availability anticipated to increase in France adding additional downward pressure. The CWE front-month contracts are trading down to track losses in both EU ETS and European gas.

• France Base Power Week-Ahead down 1.6% at 44.50 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power Week-Ahead down 0.2% at 62.00 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power AUG 24 down 1% at 45.26 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 1.4% at 70.65 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 67.77 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.1% at 32.75 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 down 2% at 108.75 USD/MT
• EU ETS Dec 24 fails to continue climbing from the previous as price falls in TTF are weighing down, while investment funds positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish with net short positioning slightly increasing, latest COT data as of 17 July.
• The latest bi-weekly Polish Primary Market Auction (Phase 4 - CAP3) cleared lower to €66.66/ton CO2e, compared with €68.84/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 3 July, according to EEX.
• TTF is edging down marginally today but holding most of its previous gains. Support comes from the slow return of Freeport after the Hurricane Beryl shutdown
• French wind output is expected at 4.1-4.5GW, or 21-23% load factors over 22-23 July. In contrast to France, German wind is expected at 10-15% load factors over the same period.
• EdF is anticipated to reconnect its 1.31GW Golfech 2 and 910MW Blayais 1 nuclear units over 22-21 July, according to Bbg.
• The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose on the day as wind forecasts in both countries for tomorrow point to low wind, with hourly prices in Germany climbing above €180/MWh for the second consecutive session.
• Investment funds net short positions in ICE German power futures continued to be slightly more bullish from the previous week, according to the latest COT data for the week of 12 July.
• Statkraft has entered into a fixed-price PPA with company Boralex for power output from Boralex's 106MW Limekiln Scottish wind farm, with the agreement to begin once the wind farm is commissioned by the end of 2024, Boralex said.
• Spain has launched a new €2.3bn plan to support the country’s renewable energy transition, industry and include subsidies for green hydrogen, it said, cited by XM.