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Mid-Month IPCA Inflation Expected To Dip To 9.49% Y/y

BRAZIL
  • The residual effect of tax cuts in July and lower fuel prices should drive deflation in the mid-August reading. Consumer prices as measured by the IPCA-15 index will probably fall 0.83% in August on a monthly basis, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, compared to a 0.13% increase in prior reading. The decline in prices should be heavily concentrated in fuel and electricity costs. Food, apparel and personal services prices likely rose again.
  • National statistics agency IBGE to release report at 1300BST/0800ET:
    • Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/m, est. -0.83%, prior 0.13%
    • Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 Y/y, est. 9.49%, prior 11.39%
  • Brazil central bank President Roberto Campos Neto expects consumer prices to fall for three consecutive months through September and close the year with a smaller increase than most economists forecast.
  • “Inflation this year will be around 6.5%, perhaps a bit lower,” he said Tuesday at an event organized by Moneda Asset Management in Santiago de Chile.
    • While prices regulated by the government are providing some inflation relief, services costs are still going higher, according to Campos Neto. (BBG)
  • Former president and front-runner for this year’s election, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, said that he’s not scared of the size of Brazil’s public debt, given that indebtedness isn’t bad when it’s adding investments.
  • Money is good when used in work, investments and development, he said to businessmen in Sao Paulo.
    • Lula added that if elected he’d announce an infrastructure program in January 2023 (BBG)
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