Middle East Remains Tense, Ceasefire Talks “Not Promising”

Tensions in the Middle East have deteriorated with the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon escalating, further Houthi attacks on shipping and Qatar saying that ceasefire talks for Gaza were not progressing well. Issues in the region have supported oil prices, which are around 10% higher this year. But the last attack on US forces in the region was on February 4.

• The main risk of escalation in the region is between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon who have increased rocket attacks. Israel killed one of the group’s commanders last week. Hezbollah has said it will only stop attacking once there is a ceasefire in Gaza and will now not only attack military positions after it said Israel had killed civilians.
• An Iranian commander appears to have told Iranian-backed rebels to show restraint at the request of the Iraqi government, according to Reuters. Iran apparently wants to avoid the conflict expanding and Iraq wants discussions on the withdrawal of US troops from its soil to resume. The day after the visit one group, Kataib Hesbollah, said it would halt attacks. The US has 2500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria.
• Qatar said that ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas were “not very promising” but PM Al Thani remained optimistic. Meanwhile an Israeli minister said that a ground offensive into Rafah will begin if the remaining Israeli hostages are not released by Ramadan which starts around the second week of March, according to Bloomberg. Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state and said that it can only be negotiated with Israel.
• Attacks against merchant shipping around Yemen persist with the UK Maritime Trade Operations saying a vessel had reported a nearby explosion. These events have resulted in a large share of maritime traffic going around southern Africa instead of through the Suez Canal.