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MIDTERMS: Dem Warnock Holds Narrow Lead In GA, Run-Off Looking Likely


In one of the closest Senate races of the night, the state of Georgia remains a tossup but numbers show the race narrowly trending towards incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock.

  • With >95% of votes counted, Warnock leads with 49.5% of the vote to Republican challenger Herschel Walker's 48.5%, a gap of 37.5k votes of the 3.86mn votes counted. Still 12% of the vote to come in from Cobb County northwest of Atlanta, where Warnock currently leads 56% to 41%, and 7% remaining from Fulton County west of the city where Warnock's advantage is 74% to 25%.
  • Data from Smarkets shows a strong swing towards Democrat Warnock in the past few hours. Warnock is given a 75.2% implied probability of retaining the seat, compared to a 19.2% implied probability that Walker wins.
  • If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote then a run-off election will take place on 6 December. This scenario looks increasingly likely.
  • Assumptions from bettors is that with it looking likely that the Democrats retain at least 50 seats in the Senate, following John Fetterman's win in Pennsylvania and early numbers from Arizona and Nevada looking promising for the party, the Georgia race will lose its importance in deciding control of the chamber. This could take the wind out of Republican voter sails and provide an easier race for Warnock in the run-off.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Georgia Senate Race, %

Source: Smarkets

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