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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Betting markets continuing to price in a split Congress with Democrat control of the Senate and Republican control of the House as the most likely outcome as of 2130PT/0030ET/0530GMT.
- Data from Smarkets shows a 64.5% implied probability of a split congress, with the prospect of a 'red wave' of the Republicans taking control of both chambers down to a 20.8% implied probability.
- There has been a jump in bettors moving towards the tail risk scenario of the Democrats retaining control of both chambers of Congress, now standing at a 20.4% implied probability, up from 3.3% at 1945ET.
- Democrats flipping Republican seats in Ohio, and notably NC-13 (see 0513GMT bullet) seen as significantly limiting the prospect of a sizeable (or in some scenarios any) GOP majority in the House.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Congressional Control, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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