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MIDTERMS: Dems Flipping GOP House Seats Sees Betting Market Shift


Betting markets continuing to price in a split Congress with Democrat control of the Senate and Republican control of the House as the most likely outcome as of 2130PT/0030ET/0530GMT.

  • Data from Smarkets shows a 64.5% implied probability of a split congress, with the prospect of a 'red wave' of the Republicans taking control of both chambers down to a 20.8% implied probability.
  • There has been a jump in bettors moving towards the tail risk scenario of the Democrats retaining control of both chambers of Congress, now standing at a 20.4% implied probability, up from 3.3% at 1945ET.
  • Democrats flipping Republican seats in Ohio, and notably NC-13 (see 0513GMT bullet) seen as significantly limiting the prospect of a sizeable (or in some scenarios any) GOP majority in the House.

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Congressional Control, %

Source: Smarkets

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